U.S. Economy | Performance Indicators

Since the 2024 election, U.S. economic indicators have cooled but remained resilient. Inflation is easing, the labor market is gradually softening, and the Federal Reserve has kept rates steady while markets adjust to slower growth expectations. The S&P 500 has pulled back, reflecting a cautious transition toward a more sustainable economic environment.

Analysis of Economic Indicators

📈 Consumer Price Index (CPI)

	🧮 Headline CPI (YoY)	🛒 Core CPI (YoY)	📈 Monthly CPI Change
January 6, 2025 (reflecting Dec 2024 data)	+3.3%	+3.9%	+0.2%
April 19, 2025 (reflecting Mar 2025 data)	+2.4%	+2.8%	-0.1%

Core inflation remains elevated, suggesting that underlying price pressures persist. The Federal Reserve continues to monitor these trends closely, especially in light of potential impacts from new trade policies and tariffs.​Axios

👷 Employment Numbers

📅 Date	👷 Jobs Added (Nonfarm Payrolls)	📉 Unemployment Rate	🛠️ Notes
January 6, 2025 (reflecting Dec 2024 jobs report)	143,000 jobs added	4.0%	Strong hiring in healthcare, retail, and social assistance. Mining sector declined.
April 19, 2025 (reflecting Mar 2025 jobs report)	+165,000 jobs added	4.2%	Hiring slowed a bit from earlier highs; steady in healthcare and education, but weaker in construction and manufacturing.

In January 2025, nonfarm payrolls had increased by 143,000 jobs. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.0%, the lowest since May 2024 . Significant job gains were observed in health care (+44,000), retail trade (+34,000), and social assistance (+22,000) sectors .​Roth Staffing Companies+2Robert Half+2CEPR+2Roth Staffing Companies+1Bureau of Labor Statistics+1

As of April 19, 2025, the most recent official data indicates that the U.S. unemployment rate was 4.2% in March 2025, with approximately 7.1 million individuals unemployed. ​feargreedmeter.com+2Bureau of Labor Statistics+2Bureau of Labor Statistics+2

📊 S&P 500 Value

📅 Date	📈 S&P 500 Index Closing Value	🔻 % Change vs January 6	🧠 Market Mood
January 6, 2025	5,975.38	—	Markets optimistic; fueled by "soft landing" hopes and strong earnings.
April 18, 2025 (latest close)	5,235.89	-12.4%	Pulled back on inflation worries, rate uncertainty, and global trade tensions.

The S&P 500 has experienced volatility due to economic uncertainties stemming from new trade policies and inflation concerns. Market fluctuations reflect investor apprehension regarding the economic outlook .​

On January 6, 2025, the S&P 500 Index closed at 5,975.38, marking a 0.6% gain for the day. ​AP News+1StatMuse+1

Between January 6 and April 18, 2025, the S&P 500 experienced a decline of approximately 12.4%. This downturn has been influenced by factors such as persistent inflation, cautious Federal Reserve policies, and uncertainties surrounding new trade policies.

💰 Interest Rates

📅 Date	💰 Federal Funds Rate (Target Range)	🏦 Fed Policy Stance	🧠 Notes
January 6, 2025	4.25% – 4.50%	Holding steady	Fed paused rate hikes late 2024; cautious tone due to persistent inflation.
April 19, 2025	4.25% – 4.50%	Still holding steady	Inflation cooled, but Fed waiting for more confirmation before cutting.

The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50% since December 2024. Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have indicated a cautious approach to rate adjustments, emphasizing the need to assess the economic impact of recent policy changes . Despite market expectations for potential rate cuts later in the year, persistent inflation and economic uncertainties have led to a wait-and-see stance .​

Conclusion

Since the 2024 election, the U.S. economy has entered a clear transition phase. Inflation has steadily cooled, with headline CPI dropping from 3.3% to 2.4% and core CPI easing as well, signaling progress but not full victory in the Fed’s inflation fight. The labor market remains a pillar of strength, although cracks are beginning to show: job growth has slowed slightly and unemployment has edged up from 4.0% to 4.2%. Despite these shifts, the Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, signaling a wait-and-see approach as it balances slowing price pressures against lingering economic resilience. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has pulled back roughly 12% from its post-election highs, as investors recalibrate expectations for growth, earnings, and eventual rate cuts. Overall, the data points to a soft but orderly deceleration — a necessary step toward a more sustainable economic expansion, though risks around consumer strength, corporate margins, and policy timing remain firmly in focus.