Predictive Models in a Volatile Market

Despite the recent turbulence in the markets and uncertainty around tariffs, it's important to remember that volatility is a normal part of investing, not a sign that something is broken.

Trillion Dollar Trade Policies

Markets have weathered many storms over the decades—economic cycles, geopolitical tensions, and policy shifts—and they’ve consistently proven their ability to recover and grow over time.

I recently published a Yearly Performance Report for Fintech Trades members, providing a comprehensive analysis of our performance one year post-launch, which includes developments that took place around three months into the beginning of a global trade war.

Fintech Trades sold top performing stocks to cover loses from underperformers resulting in an 18.4% return on investment (ROI). The S&P500 only gained 3% during that same time.

 However, although we anticipated exiting some positions due to the market's inherent unpredictability—despite our advanced algorithmic methods—the volume of sell transactions exceeded our expectations. We had hoped that just two or three of the stocks in our portfolio would experience negative growth beyond a three-month period or a decline exceeding 25%. Instead, we carried out 19 sell transactions during the year.

Even with the fluctuations in our portfolio, the year-to-date ROI for 2025 from sell transactions is a remarkable 30.4%, and we remain confident in the fundamentals of the stocks we hold.

Year to date ROI

If you're feeling anxious, know that you're not alone—and that staying focused on long-term goals, maintaining diversification, and avoiding impulsive decisions are some of the best ways to navigate periods like this. Keep in mind: resilience isn’t just a trait of strong markets—it’s something every investor can build, one steady step at a time.

Home